A New China Policy for a New World

Our actions now will determine if millions enjoy peace or suffer war

The Cold War was one of humanity's gravest mistakes that, by a mix of luck and diplomacy, did not end in thermonuclear war. The fact that we emerged unscathed should be seen as humanity's greatest gift—an opportunity to look back at our history and realize that even if no bullets were fired or missiles launched, we still suffered tremendously. Unfortunately, that same lack of violence is ironically leading us into a period of conflict with another great power, this time without even the pretense of ideological divides. If President Biden wishes to be remembered as a peacekeeper, as he says he does, then his administration must realize the path they are setting this country, and this world, on.

Even with wars in Europe and the Middle East, no war would be as destructive as a conflict between the U.S. and China. The investment required to defend Taiwan would be astronomical, both monetarily and militarily. It would mean soldiers being deployed both in the South China Sea and on the island itself, as well as balancing an extremely dangerous escalatory spiral if U.S. forces in South Korea and Japan were hit. This would pull in South Korean and Japanese forces into the conflict, without even considering how a distracted South Korea might empower an increasingly belligerent neighbor in the North. The future of that conflict is murky, but the consequences are clear: bloodshed that the world has not seen in almost a hundred years. This cannot be allowed to happen under any circumstance.

Taiwan’s situation is not analogous to Ukraine in the slightest—a country that has an expansive western border that ammunition can easily be funneled through. It should also be noted that even the most basic “victory” in Taiwan, where U.S. forces repel a Chinese invasion, is far from guaranteed. China already has sleeper agents inside of Taiwan ready to incapacitate critical defense sectors on the island. U.S. forces would have to break through a Chinese naval blockade around Taiwan in order to establish any type of long-term support for the island nation. This would all be in the backdrop of an intensive amphibious assault along the coastline of Taiwan that would require substantial coastline defense. In short, China has the upper hand in an attack on Taiwan, and while their offensive capabilities aren’t infallible, they are undoubtedly strong.

The drums of war against China are already fervent in much of American culture and discussion. In 2018, China was viewed positively by 54% of the country; now, it’s 14%. That drastic of a fall is only possible through a political and media environment that accepts an inherently flawed thesis that China’s growth can only come at our detriment. We must, as a population, be willing to accept that the U.S. will never, nor should it ever, be the sole determiner of global prosperity. Like any country or entity, our influence waxes and wanes depending on the audience. China will likely never hold the same influence we hold over our European allies, nor will we be able to shift North Korean or Russian policy as much as the Chinese. To fill the gaps and deliver unbreakable peace, our two countries must work together.

On Taiwan, U.S. policymakers must reconsider what we are getting out of goading Taiwan to press against China. There is a diplomatic solution that addresses China’s insecurity over Western Indo-Pacific influence while also not ceding total control of Taiwan over to China. Instead of continuously breaking norms regarding the island, the U.S. should revert to its successful policy on Taiwan that has kept the island safe and prosperous for decades. Our aim to establish deterrence in Taiwan by arming the island nation profusely is only serving to enrage Chinese officials and stir conflict. No American official should be stepping foot on the island without a blessing from Chinese authorities. These, along with many smaller policies, will lower the temperature in the region and promote real dialogue without the pretense of a regional war.

A core argument for the direct defense of Taiwan is that the valuable chip-production industry that powers our technological progress would be barred from U.S. industries. This doesn’t have to be the case. China has no interest in decoupling chip production between our two countries if we are not adversarial. It’s a self-fulfilling prophecy: go to war with China to prevent our chip production from being disrupted, and in the process, disrupt our chip production in an irreversible manner. Stop looking at China as an adversary and we can open back up the lanes of innovation that both countries have been rapidly closing. Let’s work with China to produce technology that can raise the bar for American and Chinese workers.

Economically, our two countries also hold major promise. We have the ability to create a symbiotic economic relationship that would raise American wages, spread American goods, and lower prices all the while. Decoupling our two economies not only dramatically raises the risk of conflict, but will raise prices and hurt the poorest in our nation and in the world. We should be inviting Chinese companies to compete with American companies without the misguided assumption that China must do the exact same. China is a huge driver for American prosperity in industries outside of just production. There are over 350 million NBA fans in China, and China is by far the largest foreign market for our entertainment products. Looking at our economic relationship on a micro level ignores the incredibly positive macro trends.

Together, we can harness our economic potential and fuel the green revolution to save our common people. China is the largest emitter of CO2 in the world, and we are the second largest. How could we possibly expect to make substantive climate progress when we are in a de facto state of war? We can’t. Let’s push to expand on the Paris Climate Accord and find a way that we can reduce our emissions without disrupting China’s aim to lift millions out of poverty. China and the U.S. can also provide a unified front to help developing nations build through renewable energy, and not through fossil fuels. I strongly disagree with the Biden administration’s attempt to cut China out of important climate procedures, and I hope that a Harris administration will bring change on this issue. Let’s be clear: there is no way we can fight climate change without working with China step-by-step.

Maybe most crucially, we should be engaging with China to fight nuclear proliferation and rhetoric. This should start with the U.S. publicly committing to a no-first-use policy on nuclear weapons. It is deplorable that our military doctrine allows these weapons to be used in any offensive capacity, and it signals a lack of faith in our conventional military that should disturb any American. We have the strongest military on earth, powered by an exorbitant defense budget. If we can’t win a war without a nuclear weapon, we shouldn’t be fighting at all. China has been a leader on nuclear policy for quite some time, and I believe there is quite a bit we can learn from them on this issue. Let’s work with China to limit the number of nuclear warheads in circulation and stop the development of these weapons wherever they may be. Our intervention in Taiwan is stopping progress on arms control, and we should give considerable thought as to whether this is truly a worthy sacrifice. China played perhaps the most important role in de-escalating the chance of nuclear usage in Ukraine. Would Russia have listened to NATO about nuclear usage if they had so flagrantly disregarded their previous warnings about Ukraine? It’s unclear. What we do know is that China was a critical voice in backing down from one of the most dangerous times in our history. There is no reason to think that China would act similarly if we were at war with them over Taiwan, or if relations continued to deteriorate.

I am not advocating for the U.S. to completely disregard its strategic interests in the Indo-Pacific. Simply, I’m questioning what our strategic interests really are. If the goal is to protect our chip industry, grow our economy, and promote peace and stability, then it would stand to reason that a new China policy is needed. There are issues with China that we may never agree on, and that’s alright. We do not need to be the closest of allies in order to bring about the type of prosperity that is possible; we simply need to not consider each other mortal enemies. Giving peace a chance to grow is difficult and slow. Relationships that have been cultivated for decades can be destroyed in minutes. What is clear is that a continuation of Trump-era policy regarding China is incredibly dangerous and raises the chance of great power conflict by a frightening magnitude.

In short, our geopolitical relationships should be built off of a mix of shared values and strategic interests. Even if we disagree with many of China’s domestic policies, we should still work together to solve common issues. Let’s work with China to battle climate change, promote peace, and bring about an era of economic growth that this world has never seen. The Kingdom of Saudi Arabia is by no means in alignment with our values, and yet we understand that there is a certain geopolitical reality we would like to see that cannot be achieved without working together. There is no use in disregarding the interests of a country as powerful as China, and certainly no use in demonizing the Chinese people or leadership.

“Taking the long view, we simply cannot afford to leave China forever outside the family of nations… There is no place on this small planet for a billion of its potentially most able people to live in angry isolation.” Richard Nixon, Oct. 1967