Netanyahu's Israel is not an Ally

Israel must pull back now or be prepared to face this conflict alone

"The war in Lebanon has demonstrated many things, but two consequences are key to the peace process... Israel's military successes in Lebanon have demonstrated that its armed forces are second to none in the region, but they alone cannot bring just and lasting peace to Israel and her neighbors"​ - Ronald Reagan

For months, I believed that Hezbollah and Israel would not go to war. There were too many incentives for both sides to stop short of conflict and delicately defuse tensions. I was wrong. If Israel and Hezbollah are not already at war, they will be by the time this piece is published. This is the final moment for the United States to stand up against Benjamin Netanyahu and his administration, or risk plunging our military into yet another war in the Middle East. It is time to prioritize the United States, the Israeli people, and the innocent civilians who have already been killed in this awful conflict. The Biden administration must make it clear: the United States will not work with Prime Minister Netanyahu, will not ship Israel offensive arms under his administration, and will not support an offensive war against Hezbollah, Iran, or any other nation in the region. We will not risk our sons, brothers, and husbands dying in a war started by a foreign leader who has no incentive to end these conflicts or bring the hostages home.

Israel had the right to respond and dismantle Hamas after the attacks on October 7th—on that point, I will never disagree. The initial “bear hug” strategy that the Biden administration adopted was reasonable and well-intentioned. Calling for the removal of an allied Prime Minister following a major terrorist attack would have put Israel under even more stress and potentially destroyed U.S. influence and favor with the Israeli public. There was good reason to think that Prime Minister Netanyahu would ultimately heed our appeals, eliminate Hamas, and do so with the utmost respect for Palestinian lives. Quickly, though, it became clear that Prime Minister Netanyahu was not interested in merely returning the hostages and decimating Hamas, but rather in prolonging and, if necessary, expanding the conflict. No peace will be procured while Prime Minister Netanyahu is in power, and the Biden administration is well past the point where calling for his ousting would damage Israel further.

Our unconditional defense of Israel is making America and the world less safe. It complicates our diplomacy with adversarial nations like Iran and makes it more difficult to form a clear coalition in the Middle East. The failure to bring the JCPOA back into agreement during President Biden’s administration has been a disappointing yet predictable consequence of Israel yet again determining U.S. policy. It is in the United States' best interest for Iran to peacefully disarm its nuclear program, especially when the alternative would lead to yet another bloody war. Iran will likely never be an ally of the U.S., but our ‘maximum pressure’ doctrine has pushed the country into Moscow’s sphere of influence. Every American, Israeli, and human is safer if Iran does not possess nuclear weapons, and we must strive to peacefully promote non-proliferation in the region. If the situation were reversed and Israel had the power to make itself safer while “disregarding” American interests, it would do so without hesitation.

I don’t believe that Prime Minister Netanyahu wakes up each day asking himself, “How can I go to war with Iran?” The idea that Israel is seeking a conflict of that nature is not grounded in reality. If Israel wanted war, they could have it. However, Israel has made it clear that their risk appetite is far higher than that of the U.S. Israel has refused to follow the lead of their security guarantor and insulted the very basis that our relationship is based on. Instead, Israel has adopted a “act now and ask for forgiveness later” mantra across the region, striking Iran and its allies with little regard for our interests. This puts the U.S. in a precarious position, forced to react to a spiraling security environment rather than proactively working in concert to prevent escalation. If U.S. influence deteriorates but the aid does not, this trend will only worsen.

This is the crux of what should be our new Israel-U.S. strategy. It is not the Cold War anymore, and ideology should not have more weight than the practical benefits of our diplomatic relations. If Israel wants to behave in a way antithetical to our own security interests, they should not enjoy the full scope of U.S. protection. We leave it to the Israeli people and government to decide if that trade-off is worth it. Alliances are a symbiotic relationship, and in theory, our ironclad support for Israel should allow us to maintain a presence in the Middle East without the burden of a large military operation in the region. In reality, we have provided a walled garden in which Tel Aviv assumes they are untouchable. This belief in infallibility permeates every level of Israeli military decision-making, from the initial war in Gaza to the ongoing escalation in Lebanon. It’s also completely unique compared to our productive alliances with nations like the United Kingdom, South Korea, and France. All of these states understand that when we move as one united force for democracy and stability, we are unstoppable.

The first step in this new strategy is the immediate cessation of offensive weapons sales to Israel until Prime Minister Netanyahu resigns or a ceasefire is reached in both Gaza and Lebanon. We allow the sale of these powerful weapons to our allies because we trust they have the capability to act rationally and within the established norms that the Western world has set. Israel has broken that trust and must earn it again by showing they do not truly want war in the region. Beyond a purely strategic level, we owe it to the innocent civilians who have been killed in Gaza and now Lebanon, as well as to the hostages being used as political pawns to deflect blame by Prime Minister Netanyahu. Many argue that such an embargo would empower Hamas, Hezbollah, and Iran to launch attacks against a weakened Israel. This is a fantasy. Hamas has been decapitated and is unable to launch any sort of October 7th-style attack, and both Hezbollah and Iran have shown they do not seek immediate conflict with Israel, even if they detest the nation.

Any arms embargo would not mean abandoning Israel if it came under attack. Such abandonment is wrong strategically and morally, and it is in our own interest to ensure a stable, free, and powerful Israel. However, the current policy of providing Israel with defensive support in response to Israeli offensive action is not truly defensive in nature. We should make it clear to Prime Minister Netanyahu that any offensive action Israel takes in the region should not expect blind U.S. defense. If Iran carpet-bombed Tel Aviv tomorrow morning, would Moscow and Beijing join the fray to defend Tehran? Obviously not. So why should we do the same for Israel? This is not the same world as a decade ago, when we had the strategic capabilities and a reasonable assumption that Israel would act rationally. We do not have the ability to offer blanket protection to Israel, arm Ukraine, and maintain a military presence in the South Pacific simultaneously.

It is also a mistake, in my opinion, to pursue Israel-Saudi normalization in exchange for the protection of Saudi Arabia. The idea of a clear coalition that could advance U.S. interests is no doubt intriguing and potentially beneficial, but it’s far from certain whether this coalition would be able to act unilaterally. Countering Iran’s growing influence in the region is of strategic importance, but we should examine how and why Tehran has been so successful in maintaining influence. Iran supports its interests in the region through the transfer of arms and ammunition to terrorist organizations like Hezbollah and Hamas without the expectation that Iran will come to the rescue. I am, of course, not advocating that the U.S. align itself with terrorist organizations that denigrate our humanity like Hamas and Hezbollah, but rather am highlighting that unconditional defense should be used only in the absolute rarest of circumstances. Flexibility in our response and ambiguity in how our enemies perceive us is a core tenet of national security policy, so why abandon it in the most dangerous region on earth?

This underlines a well-intentioned but ultimately unsuccessful policy that the Biden administration must immediately pivot away from. Leak after leak of President Biden’s frustration concerning Israeli action only serves to make our President and intelligence community look incompetent and feckless. Either President Biden is lying, and he is okay with Israel commanding the majority of our intelligence capabilities, or he is a fool and is not capable of leading the country through this pivotal moment. I do not believe the President is a fool, nor do I believe he values the security of Israel over that of the United States, but I do know that he has to make a choice now. Either plunge the world further into war and be denigrated in the history books, or pivot for peace and prevent what increasingly looks like the return of widespread conflict in our world.

It is common to hear that the world today is more dangerous than at any time since “the end of the Cold War.” That’s true, but it could go further. We have a war in Europe that is endlessly escalating, a war in the Middle East that could easily pit Iran against Israel, and a brewing conflict in the Pacific against our foremost adversary. While China focuses on Taiwan, we are scattered, unable to pause and collect ourselves while the world runs amok. The United States cannot be everywhere and defend everyone. Tough choices are going to have to be made soon, and when it comes time to decide who is truly crucial to our national interests and who is not, we should first assess whether they respect the power that the United States holds. As it stands, Israel does not.